2019 NFL Predictions from Some Random Schmuck
I run an NFL pool with a friend. It’s been going for almost a decade now, and I have never been relevant in it. Every week I tabulate everyone’s scores and write a quick summary of who matters in the pool, and I am rarely in my own summaries. One year, I did well for a prolonged stretch and made it off the bubble and into the money, and it came along with devising a system based off FootballOutsiders’ rankings. I simply assigned a certain numerical value to their rankings, then added everything up, including the point spread, and simply picked the team with the higher number, no other thinking required.
I’ve decided to supercharge that strategy, and I spent the last week creating a similar model for this year. Because I’m competitive and enjoy being right, here are my predictions for the NFL season, informed by this past week of research.
NFC East
Philadelphia 12–4
Dallas 10–6*
NY Giants 5–11
D.C. Irrelevants 5–11
NFC North
Chicago 10–6
Green Bay 9–7*
Minnesota 8–8
Detroit 7–9
NFC South
New Orleans 11–5
Atlanta 9–7
Carolina 6–10
Tampa Bay 5–11
NFC West
LA Rams 11–5
Seattle 8–8
San Francisco 6–10
Arizona 5–11
AFC East
New England 12–4
Buffalo 7–9
NY Jets 7–9
Miami 2–14
AFC North
Cleveland 10–6
Pittsburgh 10–6*
Baltimore 9–7
Cincinnati 5–11
AFC South
Houston 9–7
Jacksonville 9–7
Indianapolis 8–8
Tennessee 7–9
AFC West
LA Chargers 11–5
Kansas City 10–6*
Denver 7–9
Oakland 4–12
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
LA Rams over Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears over Dallas Cowboys
Divisional Round
New Orleans Saints over LA Rams
Philadelphia Eagles over Chicago Bears
NFC Championship
Philadelphia Eagles over New Orleans Saints
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Round
Kansas City Chiefs over Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers over Houston Texans
Divisional Round
New England Patriots over Kansas City Chiefs
LA Chargers over Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC Championship
New England Patriots over LA Chargers
Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles over New England Patriots
MVP: Carson Wentz
Offensive Player of the year: Patrick Mahomes
Defensive Player of the year: Von Miller
Rookie of the year: Josh Jacobs
Per PFF, the Eagles have both the top offensive line and pass rush in football. Bill Barnwell wrote that they have one of the best arsenals of offensive weapons in the NFL. Betonline.ag claims they assign 6.5 points worth of spread value to Carson Wentz, with only Russell Wilson (7), Patrick Mahomes (7), Tom Brady (7) and Aaron Rodgers (7.5) getting more. Plus, Doug Pederson has proven he is one of the best coaches in the NFL. The only weakness this team really has is in the secondary, and Malcolm Jenkins is still around to patch up the holes around him. Fletcher Cox is 90% of Aaron Donald, and if Carson Wentz comes back 100% to his MVP form of a few years ago, I think this is far and away the best team in football, top to bottom.
Of course, given my history of gambling, this means that Wentz is going to get disemboweled in week 1, Fletcher Cox will get concussed by a falling asteroid, and the Eagles will limp to a 7–9 forgotten season, all while the Pats still win another Super Bowl, because we clearly live in hell. And no, I’m not ready to talk about my beloved Broncos being led by the author of one of the most painful moments of my sportslife yet. Enjoy the season folks!
