NFL DEFINITELY NOT GUESSES FOR EACH DIVISION AND THE SUPER BOWL

I originally wrote this for Predominantly Orange before realizing that someone already covered this the week before. As a former Texas governor once said: oops. So here it is, my predictions for the NFL season. Free money for anyone who fades this nonsense.

Preseason predictions are stupid. The only information you have to work with comes from four meaningless games. Now predictions one week into the season? That’s genius! You get four meaningless games AND one meaningful tune up game’s worth of information. Let’s do this!

Sunday was as fun of an NFL opener as we’ve had, and there are some strong opinions that can already be formed. If Case Keenum is starting against a competent NFL defense, you’re never winning; Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton are still great; and Mike Mularkey is the opposite of Bill Belichick. With one week’s worth of insight, here’s who I think will win each division and how the playoffs will shake out (obvious hint: the Broncos are prominently involved).

NFC East

1. New York
2. Washington
3. Dallas
4. Philadelphia

This feels like a Giants-y season. They won on Sunday because all the stupid in the world invaded Terrance Williams’ body at the worst possible moment, and the Daksperience might be just another version of checkdown city — as Jason Witten and Cole Beasley combined for 26 targets to Dez Bryant’s 5. Kirk Cousins didn’t like that on Monday night, and the D.C. Controversies are prime regression candidates. Carson Wentz lit up the Browns, but every beat reporter in the country with Cleveland on their team’s schedule has a draft of “[team] lit up the Browns” saved on their computer. This division is filled with 6–10 to 9–7 teams, but the demarcation line will fall on the experience at the quarterback position.

NFC North

1. Green Bay
2. Detroit
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago

Aaron Rodgers man…

The rest of this division will be frisky, but not good enough to make the playoffs. The post-Megatron Lions offense looks like it might be more fun than their previous “lob it to that freak of nature” scheme. Ameer Abdullah is silky smooth when he’s not dropping the football, Theo Riddick puts linebackers on ice skates, Golden Tate is still very good, and Marvin Jones gets better every game. The Vikings offense was going to struggle no matter who is under center, as Teddy Bridgewater’s dink and dunk skillset is a mismatch with Norv Turner’s down field attack. The Bears will bring up the rear in this division as Foxball and Smokin Jay Cutler will combine to form a supernova of Broncos schadenfreude.

NFC South

1. Carolina
2. Tampa Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Atlanta

The Panthers are no friggin joke. Cam Newton has inserted himself into the Brady/Rodgers debate at the top of the QB heap, and that defense is ferocious. The Bucs have as much talent as anyone in this conference, and if Jameis treats everyone like that dreadful Atlanta defense, the NFC will have another contender at the top to deal with. Speaking of bad defenses, Rob Ryan is gone but New Orleans’ defense still makes every quarterback look like Peyton Manning. Oh, and Matt Ryan is going to wind up being the 4th best QB in this division when all is said and done.

NFC West

1. Arizona
2. Seattle
3. San Francisco
4. Saint Louis Los Angeles

Seattle’s offensive line is too big of an Achilles heel to make them the favorites in this division run by defenses. The Cardinals are probably the most complete team in the NFL, and unless Carson Palmer’s knee explodes again, it’s difficult to see how they won’t win at least 10 or 11 games. The 49ers defense jumped a level the moment they drafted DE DeForest Buckner out of Oregon this year, as he posted the highest graded game per PFF of any defensive rookie. As for the Rams, well…

AFC East

1. New England
2. New York
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

Betting on the Patriots to win this joke of a division is a better guarantee on your return than buying US treasury bonds. What has been downplayed in this remarkable 12 of 13 stretch for the Pats is how incompetent the other three teams have been. No other AFC east franchise has a cumulative record above .500 over the last 13 seasons. Contrast that to the AFC west over the last five Bronco dominated seasons where every title but one was won against at least one team .500 or better. The Chiefs won 11 games twice in the last three seasons. The Jets, Bills, and Dolphins combine for two seasons in their last 13 with 11 wins.

Vinny Testaverde is the best quarterback the Jets have ever had (Joe Namath had 47 more career INT’s than TD’s and completed 50% of his passes, he’s the most overrated player in sports), Miami is never bad enough to get a blue chip draft pick but never good enough to contend, and the Bills, well, they’re the Bills. They’re the AFC’s best losers. Throw every last dime you can on the Pats to win the division no matter the odds and thank yourself for the free money at the end of the season.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh
2. Cincinnati
3. Baltimore
4. Cleveland

Antonio Brown is a magician, and we really are witnessing one of the most unique players in NFL history. AJ Green isn’t far behind, as the AFC north can lay claim to the two best receivers in football. Given the depth that the Bengals lost in the offseason, this division will likely come down to Big Ben vs Andy Dalton.

The Ravens will be Pittsburgh’s awkward ex, as they try to revive a rivalry that now takes a backseat to one against one of the most dominant teams of the last five years. The Browns have already started Brownsing as they are the first team to lose a quarterback. There will no doubt be more Brownsings to come as they will finish with the worst record in football despite having perhaps the most exciting wide receiver trio in the game with Josh Gordon, rookie speedster Corey Coleman, and Terrelle Pryor.

AFC South

1. Houston
2. Jacksonville
3. Indianapolis
4. Tennessee

This dumpster fire of a division will remain one, as “here come the Jaguars!!” takes will fly around all season before succumbing to the “Brock Osweiler had to leave Peyton’s shadow to become Brock Osweiler” hotter taeks. Andrew Luck may finally get mauled by a bear this season, as the Colts didn’t upgrade their dreadful offensive line. They basically decided to take the football equivalent of the hope diamond and store it under an overpass. Meanwhile, Mike Mularkey is actively trying to ruin Marcus Mariota.

AFC West

1. Denver
2. Kansas City
3. Oakland (for now)
4. San Diego

A great man once said “if you come at the king, you best not miss.” Kansas City walked in to Denver last year and knocked the stuffing out of the Broncos and benched a hall of fame quarterback. That would have been their coming out party if not for the collapse at Arrowhead in week two. Andy Reid is a good coach whose teams always seem to self-destruct, and in a division decided by one game, that will be the difference. Oakland is going to be tough, but they’re still young, and coaching is a question mark for them too.

Always a good sign when head coaches refute probability statistics: “Scoring points has nothing to do with numbers, IT’S ABOUT HEART!!!” There’s a reason why Gary Kubiak outsourced this stuff to a specialist during games. Meanwhile, San Diego just finds more ways to get sadder each year.

NFC Playoffs

1. Tampa Bay over 3. Arizona

4. New York over 5. Seattle

Carson Palmer’s postseason woes finally seem like a thing, and they are primed for disappointment in January. Meanwhile, I told you, this feels like a weird Giants season. They spent a ton of money on defense and Eli still has some horseshoes to pull out of his ass.

1. Carolina over 6. Tampa Bay
2. Green Bay over 4. New York

Not that weird of a Giants season though. Green Bay and Carolina are a cut above the rest of the NFC as they combine elite quarterback play with a top defense.

1. Green Bay over 1. Carolina

It’s been five years since Aaron Rodgers has been to a Super Bowl. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady each played in two during that span. We will remember that stretch as one of the great “what ifs” of all time, as Rodgers has never had a big moment against the two standard bearers he is chasing.

AFC Playoffs

1. Denver over 6. Kansas City

5. Cincinnati over 4. Houston

As is contractually mandated by the NFL, the Bengals and Texans must play an unwatchable wild card game once every three seasons. The Bengals will finally get off the schneid and win a playoff game this year. I’m still not quite ready to fully trust Trevor Siemian (or Paxton Lynch), and my instinct is that the Broncos will drop just enough games to slip out of the 2nd bye. I didn’t realize until it was too late that my back of the envelope tabulations would lead me to a Chiefs-Broncos playoff game in Denver, but if you think I’m going to pick those eternal runner ups against a blue and orange-clad defense containing both Godzilla and Mothra, you’re reading the wrong site.

1. New England over 5. Cincinnati

3. Denver over 2. Pittsburgh

Speaking of always a bridesmaid but never a bride, this is as far as Cincinnati will go this year. Unless they get a first round bye, they will be traveling to Mile High, Foxboro, Arrowhead, or the big ketchup bottle in western Pennsylvania, and they’re not winning in any of those environments. The Broncos will squeak by Pittsburgh when Von Miller jumps the snap untouched and rips the ball out of Big Ben’s hands, stepping over him en route to a game winning touchdown.

1. New England over 2. Denver

The Broncos defense is Stone Cold Steve Austin level badass, and the run game looks really impressive. They will be a more complete team than last year.

BUT

A pissed off Tom Brady is one of the scariest things in the universe, right after quasars and giant planet smashing comets. Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in the history of this sport, and the Pats are LOADED. The defense should be one of the five or six best in the league, and Brady has never had a deeper core of targets to throw to.

Past offenses of his have relied on just a couple guys like Gronk and Edelman or Moss and Welker, but now they’re supported by Martellus Bennett, Danny “until he gets hurt” Amendola, Chris Hogan, James White, and rookie Malcolm Mitchell, who was one of Georgia’s most dependable receivers all four years on campus. Dion Lewis, who looked like perhaps the best receiving back in the league before getting hurt last season, will return somewhere around the Patriots’ week 9 bye and will be in full gear by the time the AFC Championship comes around.

The Patriots screwed around in the final two weeks last season and it cost them home field advantage, which probably decided the AFC title. They won’t make that same mistake this year, and it’s difficult to envision Trevor Siemian beating Tom Brady on the road for all the marbles.

Super Bowl

New England over Green Bay

I feel sick.