Week 1 College Football Picks/Yearly Predictions

It’s baaaaaaccckkk! The most wonderful time of the year has returned yet again as football descends upon our televisions, smartphones and bank accounts. If you read this space (and a shocking amount of you do, so seriously, thank you), you know that every year I list the games I’m betting on here, and I keep track along the way. I’m not an expert, just someone who watches way too much football and likes to keep track of my score. It’s been two years since I finished above .500 betting college football, and I’ve been above .500 on the NFL in that same period. This is annoying, because way back when I started gambling on sports, college football was my money maker, and I’m convinced that betting on the NFL is mostly random. Now I’m lucky to tread water in the NCAA while I stumble into profits in the NFL.

I had a good bowl season that made my overall record look better than it was, and this year I’m vowing to do better. So without further adieu, let’s kick of Degeneratefest 2017.

Season Long Bets

Wyoming +700 to win the Mountain West

Josh Allen is a name NFL fans should familiarize themselves with, as he is one of the favorites to be the #1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. Boise State is always loaded, San Diego State and Colorado State are serious challengers, and Wyoming will struggle to replace half of their starting offense, but these odds are way too high for a team with a potential all-pro NFL QB in a conference with none others like him.

Alabama UNDER 11 Wins

@ Auburn, @ Mississippi State, vs LSU and a faceoff this week with #3 Florida State in Atlanta.

If Alabama loses one of those games (or any other), they win 11 in the regular season. If they lose two, that probably costs them a spot in the playoff (unless one is to FSU and they still win the SEC title). This is probably stupid because betting against the Tide is like betting against the tides, but Alabama has been running too good for too long, Auburn is really going to challenge them this year, and losing a national championship at the buzzer has to cause a hangover (welp, I just committed to betting against the Falcons next week, and I couldn’t even tell you who they’re playing yet). Plus, the SEC has some serious quarterbacks this season. Losses to FSU, Auburn and a listless meaningless bowl game isn’t that crazy to envision…right?

Florida State OVER 9.5 Wins

Really? I get that the Seminoles play in likely the toughest division in the country, but this could be the best Florida State team that Jimbo Fisher has ever had — and of the best teams in the ACC this year, they only have to face Clemson on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives them an 82% chance or better to win 9 of their games. This defense is LOADED. DeAndre Francois evokes comparisons to DeShaun Watson. 9.5? How is this not 10? Or 10.5?

Oklahoma OVER 9.5 Wins

The Big 12 added a championship game this year, and in what looks to be yet another down season for the conference, the only game on the schedule other than Oklahoma State that should really scare Sooners fans is a trip to Columbus to face the Buckeyes next week.

UCLA OVER 7.5 Wins

The PAC-12 South will have a down year, and UCLA’s conference schedule has enough wins baked in to push this over the finish line.

WEEK 1 BETS

Colorado State (+3.5) vs Colorado in Denver

This pains me so much, but the Rams are good (#1 in the Mountain West in ESPN’s FPI ratings), and my beloved Buffs lost an entire secondary to the early rounds of the NFL draft. Isaiah Oliver will step up and fill some of the void, but with nine total starters to replace on defense, I wouldn’t expect to see the Buffs suffocating defensive performance from last year continue into the beginning of this season.

Wyoming (+11.5) @ Iowa

No one made me more money last year than the Cowboys, so why should I stop now? I’m shooting until I miss with these guys.

North Carolina (-12.5) vs California

This game is starting at 9:20 am PST. Cal has six new starters on offense including a new QB. The easiest money this week is betting North Carolina to win the first half.

South Carolina (+5) vs North Carolina State in Charlotte

NC State’s stout defense is down a starting corner, so taking the points with the Gamecocks feels like the safe play.

Michigan (-5.5) vs Florida in Arlington

I forget who said it on Twitter, but it’s perfect: Florida has so many players suspended for this game, they’re going to have a position player pitching by the 7th inning.

Coastal Carolina (+3) vs UMass

<BEGIN RANT>

UMass used to be a I-AA powerhouse (now FCS). They played in the CAA, which was the equivalent of the SEC, and every year it sent more teams to the tournament than any other conference. Every damn week was a playoff game. My freshman year, I watched us beat Joe Flacco and Marques Colston, and will never forget the gripping moments when Chip Kelly’s New Hampshire squad scored a TD at the buzzer in the quarterfinals in Amherst, then went for two to win instead of one to tie, the conversion fell short, and we all rushed the field, then all subsequently sprinted over the icy athletic fields to the Mullins Center, where future Stanley Cup Champion Jon Quick faced off against our hated rivals, and #1 in the country, Boston College.

After beating Montana in the semifinals the following week, we lost a close title game to Appalachian State the year before they beat Michigan in The Big House. After that game, I learned for the first time what tear gas smelled like. A few years later, UMass would give Michigan a scare in The Big House before falling short late (also known as pulling a UMass). LeBron James made fun of our awful uniforms in the 2nd half and called Victor Cruz’s ascendance. It was a fun time to be a UMass football fan.

(note: Cruz didn’t get a job after that epic MNF game, it was the following season when he broke out)

Now? In Division I? It sucks. We initially joined the MAC because apparently being in the midwest of New England qualifies you to be in the same conference as teams from Illinois and Kentucky. Now we don’t belong to any conference in what is likely a kamikaze attempt to sneak into the symbol of mediocrity and disappointment that is AAC. Our Notre Dame reject head coach won two games in his first two years before being tossed aside for the man who brought a national championship to UMass in the 1990s, then went on to win a Super Bowl as Ben Roethlisberger’s quarterback’s coach, Mark Whipple. He’s a far better coach than UMass could ever get under normal circumstances, yet seemingly every week — every.damn.week — UMass either gets blown the fuck out, or finds a creatively painful way to lose at the buzzer.

Last week they came back against Hawaii only to let the fucking rainbows waltz into the end zone with under a minute left to take the lead. I swear it was like the 37th game they’ve lost at the buzzer since moving up. But we have to stay in D-1 because UConn did and they eventually got annihilated by Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl one year so that means we can do it too, or something. I can’t take it anymore. I miss the CAA. I want to go back to the good ole days. NOW GET OFF MY LAWN!

<END RANT>

Louisville (-24) vs Purdue in Indianapolis

Has there been a less hyped reigning Heisman Trophy Winner than Lamar Jackson? The Cardinals bring back some stout defenders, and Purdue looks set up for another year of Purduing, so I’m expecting the closest thing we’ve seen to Reggie Bush since Reggie Bush to bring out the flamethrower for this one.

Florida State (+7) vs Alabama in Atlanta

Cheapest ticket you can find on Stubhub for this game is $289. Not only is this a National Championship worthy game, but Atlanta is debuting the Falcons’ new stadium that definitely doesn’t look like Megatron’s butthole.

National Championship loss hangover + the only defense in the country on par with Alabama’s + potential DeAndre Francois breakout game = take the touchdown (I know. I know. Death, taxes and Bama. I’m just feeling cocky after beating them on the Clemson moneyline back in January).

Florida State (+230) to WIN

Fuck it. Let’s do this.

LSU (-14) vs BYU in New Orleans

Replacing six starters on offense and six starters on defense on the road in a dome in week one is an arduous task for any professional team, let alone BYU. Also, I know this is almost a running joke at this point, but LSU’s offense really does look like it could be pretty good this year.

Virginia Tech (-4) vs West Virginia in Landover

The Mountaineers are replacing almost their entire defense, and if you haven’t noticed by now, the number one thing I look at in week one is continuity. Remember, all 18–22 year olds are stupid. Even you and I were/are, dear reader. It’s a fact of life.

UCLA (-3) vs Texas A&M

I’ll admit, I’m biased here. Not only could the Chosen Rosen potentially be my people’s first ever all-world Jewish quarterback (sorry Jay Fiedler), but he’s also putting the NCAA on blast for their blatant hypocrisy when it comes to student athletes? **Swoons**

Tennessee (-3) vs Georgia Tech in Atlanta

This is the second football game in the history of Megatron’s Butthole Stadium (Seriously Mercedes Benz, this is too easy), and the cheapest ticket you can find is $60. Slightly less hype surrounding the Monday night clash to end week one than the epic that everyone will be watching on Saturday night. Georgia Tech still hasn’t named a starting quarterback to replace Justin Thomas, and said that there are four guys in the mix. If the math in the old saying is correct, then that means if you have four quarterbacks, you have negative one quarterbacks. Enjoy the weekend folks.

Last Season NCAA: 66–71–5