Week 10 College/Week 9 NFL Bets
We’ve got a trend folks. The last two weeks, I am 1–11 on my first NCAA bets of the day (going by when the game finished). Afterwards? I went 5–1 and 6–0, with that success bleeding in to 7–2 and 6–3–1 NFL Sundays. No one runs this weirdly well forever, and I’m fully expecting to nail my first few bets today and then get raked over the coals for the next 48 hours. Let’s get to it (not in chronological order because I’m lazy, if you want to figure out what to fade, you’re gonna have to look at a schedule).
Texas A&M (+15) vs Auburn
Welcome to today’s theme of home dogs. Auburn can’t string two consistent games together, so I think the Aggies at least have room here for a backdoor cover.
Indiana (+12) vs Wisconsin
Last time I bet on the Hoosiers, they covered the spread against Michigan State for 59 minutes before giving up a backdoor cover. That’s not the first time IU has killed me this year, so this one is probably safe to bet against me.
Penn State (-10) @ Michigan State
OK so not all home dogs. I’m absolutely smitten by Penn State’s offense. They can cover the spread against anyone. Even Bama.
North Carolina State (+8) vs Clemson
We knew the Wolfpack were probably going to be pretty decent this year, with a stacked veteran defense and a legitimate quarterback, but man, they really may be the best team in the ACC. We’ll find out today.
Iowa (+19) vs Ohio State
This has letdown game written all over it. Buckeyes win an ugly one.
Oklahoma State (-1.5) vs Oklahoma
Baker Mayfield may be the most polarizing QB in this draft class, and count me as one who isn’t a fan. He does a good job of keeping his eyes up-field and is absolutely lethal when he uses his legs to set up better throws, but he’s too quick to run out of the pocket and gets himself into needless trouble far too often. Oklahoma State has seen him enough to know this (and vice versa for OU and Mason Rudolph), so I expect this to be a lower-scoring affair, and I’m not sure Oklahoma can win those kinds of games. The Cowboys did last week against Texas.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State UNDER 77 Points
Biggest bet of the week.
Texas (+7) @ TCU
Speaking of: I said last week that Gary Patterson is the only coach in the Big 12 that I trust, and now I am mad at my past self. The correct answer to who do I trust in the Big 12 is that there is no head coach worth trusting in this AAA college football conference that will never send a team to the playoff. This is all karmic payback for (Texas)* letting CU, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Missouri begin the slow bloodletting of the Big 12.
*For those unaware about the Texas dig, a big reason why the Big 12 lost those four teams is because that arrogant school has its own TV network. Whereas there’s an SEC Network, ACC, PAC-12, etc…what to do with a Big 12 network was a much more difficult proposition thanks to Texas swallowing a bunch of revenue all on its own. At one point, the Big 12 almost completely broke up, with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State nearly joining Colorado in their trek west (can you imagine a major conference of Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia and whatever Mountain West or Sun Belt teams they could hijack? Yowza). The Big 12 came perilously close to disintegrating during the last major expansion, and only after Texas surrendered to logic were they able to keep what was left of the conference together, and it has yet to recover. Growing up in Big 12 country, you knew you were always treated to some of the best football in the country via at least one of Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State and occasionally Colorado, but now the conference is a punchline and it makes me sad.
Stanford (PK) @ Washington State
This may just be me turning into an old man and betting the name school, but Stanford seems to have their shit together a lot better than the Cougars do this year.
Wyoming (+4.5) vs Colorado State
It’s insane how many Wyoming bets I’ve nailed over the last two years. They’ve paid close to a month’s rent for me (I went HAM on them at the end of last year). I’m really gonna miss Josh Allen.
Miami (-2.5) vs Virginia Tech
I don’t think I’ve thought Virginia Tech was really good since Michael Vick was there. Don’t trust me on this one folks, I’m biased against the Hokies and I have absolutely no clue as to why.
USC (-7) vs Arizona
The whole Clemsonning joke always hit a little too close to home for me, because they became that bumbling team right when I began seriously betting on this stuff. I quickly became entranced by their speed on both sides of the ball, and could.not.stop. betting them. Like every week. I had a friend point out one year that if I just stayed away from Clemson games, I would’ve turned a losing season into a winning one. They drove me to the point of insanity, and winning a big moneyline bet with them last year against Alabama in the title game (that I also correctly parlayed with the over) felt like a measure of closure on it all. Now I don’t feel this intrinsic need to bet Clemson every damn week.
however
That feeling never left, it just transferred to another team. This fucking team. I can’t stop betting USC even though they get the doors blown off them every time I do. Please, someone send help.
NFL bets coming tomorrow
- My God, that Oklahoma-Oklahoma State bet may be the dumbest thing I’ve ever written.
- The trend continued! Albeit at a slower pace. I opened yesterday at 2–5–1, then finished 3–1. Which means that…well…I’m not sure what that means. Maybe this is the week that weirdness stops bleeding into the NFL. If so, the teams I’m betting against are free money today.
Denver (+7) @ Philadelphia
OK hear me out on this one. I know that Trevor Siemian has basically turned into Tim Tebow so the Broncos are somehow willingly handing the ball to Brock Osweiler, plus everyone is hurt on offense. But the Broncos are a supremely prideful team, and this game is their season, and they may be catching Philly at the right time. They’re without all-world LT Jason Peters, and the offensive line was slipping before he went down. Wentz is due for a clunker, and if it weren’t for my devotion to this team, I would love this bet this week. But I am in fact, a Broncos fan, and I absolutely despise this bet. I’m 100% certain I’m going to lose this, and I hate myself for going with them, but my system that presently has me at 57% correct is holding me hostage. If this line was a half point less than 7, it’s a no bet.
LA Rams (-6) @ NY Giants
My system pegs either the Rams, Steelers or Saints as the best team in the NFL right now (Pats are a half-point back of them — one of the five inputs that goes into it being pass rush + secondary is what really hurts them).
Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Cincinnati
The Bengals awful offensive line versus the best defense in the NFL right now is a matchup made in hell or heaven depending on which one of these depressing franchises you root for.
New Orleans (-7) vs Tampa Bay
The Bears defense is good, I’m not worried about last week. The Bucs defense? Bad. Very, very, very bad — even when they’re not banged up, which they are. Plus, Jameis Cutler isn’t good enough to match Brees in a shootout for four quarters against a surprisingly stingy Saints defense.
Houston (-6.5) vs Indianapolis
The power of a nightmare week during a nightmare season supersedes the hell week that is losing your franchise quarterback. The Colts are the worst team in the NFL and it looks like they’ll only get worse from here.
Baltimore (+3.5) @ Tennessee
No one can figure the Ravens out, and it’s because Joe Flacco has been empirically awful in a season where their defense has bounced back to being one of the better units in the NFL. On any given day they could be a top 10 or bottom 10 team. Because Tennessee’s secondary is made of paper mache, I’m picking this week as one where they resemble a playoff squad.
6 point teaser
LA Rams (PK)/New Orleans (-1)
My two favorite bets this week.
6 point teaser
Jacksonville (-0.5)/Houston (-0.5)
My next two favorite bets this week.
Moneyline parlay
Baltimore/Denver
Might as well, right? I need both to win outright, but if they do, this pays out at 8–1 (note: I don’t include any parlays in my record unless they’re even odds, I do include teasers though).
Moneyline parlay
Jacksonville/Houston/LA Rams/New Orleans
Gotta consolidate and hope you’re right on heavy bye weeks like this, and here are the four teams I landed on. This pays out a little better than 2–1. Enjoy the games, folks.
OK two more. I found a matchup I really like while going over the footballoutsiders’ numbers again: Kansas City and Dallas’s offenses versus each other’s defenses. A lot. I think this is going to be a really exciting, high-scoring affair, sooooooo
OVER 53 points in Kansas City @ Dallas
6 point teaser
OVER 47 points in KC @ Dal/New Orleans (-1)
I lied about the Rams being one of my favorite bets this week, they get bumped down a level. Favorite bet + new favorite bet = biggest NFL bet of the year here. Gulp.
Last Week NCAA: 6–5
Season NCAA: 51–54–1
Last Week NFL: 6–3–1
Season NFL: 42–31–1
