Week 10 Football Picks
Texas Tech (+8) @ West Virginia
Anyone who says they have a good read on the Mountaineers is a liar. They spent the last month playing the 4 best teams in the Big 12, and lost all 4 by a combined score of 179–98. Their 3 wins came at home against Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 140–23. Gun to my head, I’d say West Virginia is a good bad team, just like Texas Tech. When teams who can beat bad teams and lose to good teams play each other, always take the points if it’s over a touchdown.
Duke (+7.5) @ North Carolina
Rivalry game, more than a TD, rinse, repeat. Also Duke must be royally pissed off after getting screwed out of a win last week, and this is the perfect game to get their aggression out.
Houston (-9) vs Cincinnatti
This has the potential to become one hell of a shootout, but I expect Houston to keep scoring while Cincy is more liable to peter out. The Bearcats defense is 40th in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed at 6.5, but if you whittle that down to their 3 road contests at Miami (OH), BYU, and Memphis, they’re allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt, ranking them 104th in the nation on the road.
TCU (-5) @ Oklahoma State
The Cowboys have a solid offense, but as far as undefeated teams go, they’re as fraudulent as it gets. They were gifted a win by Texas’ punter, probably gifted a win by the officials giving them a 1st down they didn’t deserve at Kansas State, and their best legitimate win came last week against a Texas Tech squad that would give up 40 points to a pop warner team. If TCU doesn’t drop 50+ on the Cowboys, I’ll be shocked.
UNDER 56.5 points in Clemson vs Florida State
This line opened at 12 which made my head hurt, so I decided to stay away and see where it moved. It’s down to 10.5, but for me to bet Clemson, it needs to get down to single digits. No way I’m betting the Seminoles on the road here, but I do like both defenses. No matter what you look at, whether it’s pass defense, rush defense, vs power 5 conferences, on the road, etc…these defenses play well and limit the big play. With so much on the line, I expect this to be a methodical, lower scoring contest.
Memphis (-7) vs Navy
Navy hasn’t played anyone this year, and have only gone on the road twice, beating UConn by 10 and losing handily at Notre Dame. Suffice it to say that I am not a believer in the legitimacy of their 6–1 record.
Michigan State (-6.5) @ Nebraska
The Spartans are finally starting to get healthy, while Nebraska is still searching for an identity. This looks like your standard boring B1G beatdown of like 20–7.
LSU (+7) @ Alabama
Top to bottom, LSU is a better team. Playmaker-wise, LSU is a better team. The only reason Alabama is favored by this much is because of home field advantage and because everyone has bought in to the Saban mystique. As evidenced by the playoff rankings, the Crimson Tide simply aren’t punished for losses in the same way that everyone else is. LSU wins this outright.
LSU (+220 odds to win outright) @ Alabama
Putting my money where my mouth is.
UNDER 77 points in Oregon vs Cal
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the year from hell for the Ducks is the fact that their pass defense has actually been pretty solid. Sure, they gave up roughly a trillion yards last week to Arizona State, but they’re tied with Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma State for 3rd in the nation in sacks against power 5 conferences, and are a respectable 37th in yards allowed per pass attempt against power 5 teams. It’s their rush defense that is a catastrophe, and the Bears have at best, an above-average run game.
NFL
Pittsburgh (-5) vs Oakland
This is mostly a contrarian pick. The Raiders look like a playoff team (I picked them to make the playoffs last week), and the Steelers just lost the best running back in the NFL. Usually what we see with young teams like Oakland is that once people start blowing smoke up their ass, there’s usually a letdown game that brings everyone back to earth.
Jacksonville (+8) @ New York Jets
Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the Jets quarterback this weekend, but he has a busted thumb. I don’t know about you, but the few times I’ve ever messed up my thumb, I’ve barely been able to hold the remote control, let alone throw a football accurately while a bunch of people were trying to kill me.
St. Louis (+1.5) @ Minnesota
I can’t wrap my head around this line. The Rams might be one of the best teams in the NFC, meanwhile the Vikings haven’t beaten anyone and haven’t looked particularly good doing it. This is my biggest bet of the weekend.
Green Bay (-3) @ Carolina
If you don’t think that Aaron Rodgers is going to come out and kick some major ass after only throwing for 77 yards last week, then you haven’t watched enough football the past few years.
New York Giants (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Bucs are banged up and are missing their best pass rusher. Eli might have a larger spread between how bad he is under pressure to how good he is with time than any other quarterback in the league.
Denver (-6) @ Indianapolis
Not a good week to fire your offensive coordinator Colts; there’s a wild pack of hyenas coming to town who made Aaron Rodgers look like Alex Smith last week.
Dallas (+3) vs Philadelphia
The Cowboys are essentially starting a tire fire at quarterback, but that didn’t stop them from nearly beating the Seahawks last week. This Dallas D is for real folks.
Last Week NCAA: 6–5–1
Season NCAA: 44–44–5
Last Week NFL: 1–2–1
Season NFL: 23–22–2
Total: 67–66–7
