Week 12 College/Week 11 NFL Bets
I have had the same freaking year the last three years. Not that it’s anything to complain about, since breaking even is almost a win when it comes to betting on sports, but I’m getting annoyed at proving me wrong on being a “college football guru” like I fancied myself when I began betting on this and publishing my picks.
I keep crushing my NFL bets (I’m 39–20–1 since Week 4), but I can’t get out of my own way in college (32–39–1 during that same period). I would like to get up on my soapbox and scream “no more!” but I’ve been doing that for 3+ years now. I guess I am what I am, which means you should fade my picks today, and come back tomorrow to follow me on the NFL.
Indiana (-10.5) vs Rutgers
Indiana is due for a “get the frustration out” type game, and that’s basically the only rational reason why Rutgers is in the B1G.
West Virginia (-3.5) vs Texas
Pretty sure I’ve bet a WVU game every week this year and won like, once.
Texas Tech (+7) vs TCU
Can you say, letdown game? The letdown game is typically reserved for big winners not showing up the following week (like Ohio State getting boat raced by Iowa the week after they came back against Penn State), but it works in the other direction too. TCU is playing for meaningless bowl positioning now that Oklahoma bounced them from the playoff picture, and whenever any college team is in that position, some players just flat out don’t show up.*
*Wait a second, I think I just figured out why I’ve been struggling betting college. I started betting on college football in college, and my argument as to why it was better to bet on college than the NFL is that you had more value on lines (because of more games), plus the fact that every single 18 to 22(ish) year old on the planet is a moron, which creates more chaos, and if you can find it, more value. I could bet on this shit when I was in my early 20’s, but as I’ve gotten older, I’ve gotten worse. Hmmmmmmm…..
Wisconsin (-7) vs Michigan
I have no concrete thoughts on the only good game this week — other than it feels like Vegas is begging us to bet Michigan, so fuck you Vegas, you have enough of my money already.
Kansas State (+19.5) @ Oklahoma State
I’ll admit, I’m stuck in the past when it comes to Kansas State. Bill Snyder will forever be the wizard turning Juco players into big time college players and not the dude who only beat fucking Kansas by 10 this year.
Navy (+17.5) @ Notre Dame
This has letdown game written all over it. I’m taking a heavy swing at this one.
NC State (+1.5) @ Wake Forest
The Wolfpack has made me more money than any other team this year, so I may just bet them every week out of a sense of loyalty.
UCLA (+15) @ USC
Your guess is as good as mine as to which Trojan team will show up. I’m obviously gambling on the banged-up, underwhelming version here. As always, thanks for reading, and see you here tomorrow.
NFL picks coming tomorrow
A winning college week? Weird. I almost remember what that feels like. Probably means I’m taking it on the chin today.
New York Giants (+10) vs Kansas City
Yeah yeah yeah, I know. Tire fires and all. But I just have a weird feeling about today. The NFL hasn’t had a batshit week in a while, so the theme of today is #fadethepublic.
New Orleans (-9.5) vs Washington
OK so I’m not going completely off the wall with all my picks here. The Deadskins have like, 86 starters injured for this game. If the Saints turn it into a track meet, it’s over.
Oakland (+7) vs New England in Mexico
The total on this one jumped from 50 to 54 and supposedly that was all sharp action, so I’m going to follow their lead here, and assume a high-scoring matchup — and I’ll take a touchdown regardless of the team if you promise me two scores above 25.
Baltimore (-2.5) @ Green Bay
I haven’t really seen any reports of anyone betting on this game, likely because I nearly died of boredom just looking it over. However, my famed system (grading teams on a 0 to 5 half-point scale on their QB, coaches, Pass Rush/Secondary, OL, and game breaking players — add it all up and that’s how I pick these games) says Baltimore is a better team even after giving the Packers points for the Lambeau advantage. Get excited folks! The numbers based on footballoutsiders’ numbers are pointing towards Flaccolicious! Wait a second…where is everybody going? Fine. I know how to bring you back.
Denver (-2.5) vs Cincinnati
BRRRRRRRROOOOOOCCCCKKKKKK!!!!
Seriously, Osweiler looked mildly competent against New England last week — which says far more about their awful defense than it does Brock. But at least the Broncos have a pulse with Osweiler under center now. He’s already suffered the “holy shit I’m terrible and I have no clue how to fix it” shock that Trevor Siemian is going through right now. He’s a seasoned awful vet now. He knows how to be bad. Andy Dalton on the other hand? Well, he was saved for years by his offensive line, and now that he has to run for his life more than he’s used to, he’s looking more like Siemian each day. A pissed off Broncos defense in Denver is not a great spot for Dalton to regain some confidence.
Dallas (+6) vs Philadelphia
Zig when everyone else zags, folks.
Vegas needs the Cowboys badly today, and Vegas’ business model is literally being smarter than everyone else. I like the Iggles too, but this is getting ridiculous. They’re not the runaway favorite that this line suggests. My system has the Cowboys as a 2 point favorite after giving them points for home field (the system isn’t designed to return accurate point spreads, but it has a nice habit of falling on that scale —so I simply add between 3 to 4 points for home field advantage, then add the spread and pick the team with the higher score, and that’s how I’m currently sitting at 57% on the NFL — if you’re wondering, it’s got the Rams, Saints, Steelers, Jaguars and Patriots ahead of the Eagles, in that order).
Seattle (-1.5) vs Atlanta
One new thing I’ve started to do is subtracting a point on the road for certain teams that are wildly different out in the elements than they are in a dome. I call it “The Matt Ryan Rule.”
Parlay
Denver/Dallas
Both have to win outright for me to win 4.2 times my money. I wanted to parlay Dallas’ money-line and go all in on my contrarianism, and I searched for the safest ~even odds play I could find. Gulp. I’ll warn you folks, I’ve put all kinds of weird voodoo on this Cowboys game. Firstly, me LOVING it regardless of what Vegas needs, then finding out I come down on the same side as Vegas? Then! Then! PARLAYING that bet with my favorite team who may or may not be going through a Civil War right now? My God, folks, follow me into the darkness if you will, but you should probably stay away from both these games, just for your own safety. Weird shit’s going down today, and I feel like I’m either 100% on the right or wrong side of it.
Last Week NCAA: 2–6–2
Season NCAA: 58–66–4
Last Week NFL: 5–2
Season NFL: 52–38–1
