Week 15 Football Picks: No More College
Well everyone, that’s it for college football. I finished the regular season with a flurry. At one point, I was 18 games under .500 midway through. Given that awfulness, I finished a respectable 53–59–4. It’s my second straight under .500 regular season, but the money just about balanced out thanks mostly to my confidence in Alabama and Wyoming. Vegas continually giving the latter TD and 2 score spreads at home was insane, and you couldn’t put a spread out there that the former couldn’t cover. 17.5 in the Iron Bowl? No problem. 24 in the SEC Championship? Ha! Check back here for bowl season picks to see if I can break the streak and eclipse .500.
Speaking of bowl season, looking for a fun pool for you and your friends? Me, Brad Brezinski, Shane Ryan, and a couple others from my college football pool came up with the following format. Shane Ryan is famous for several things, one of them being the concept of a Satan pool. It first debuted during the Olympics where we were forced to pick any team but the United States in events the US was competing in. If the US won, you got “Sataned” and even if your pick medaled, you lost all your points because of the Great Sataning you just endured. This is modeled off the same idea, except it’s called The Great Saban College Football Pool, and it’s largely based off of Vegas’ Alabama vs the Field odds.
What you have to do: Pick 20 bowl winners, 5 bets in the National Championship, and choose which side to sell your soul to.
The Dark Side? (picking Alabama to win the title)
Or the Light Side? (picking Washington/Clemson/Ohio State to win the title)
1. All of the Bowls
There are 39(!!!) bowls.
http://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/bowls
Pick the winners of 20 and rank them by confidence, 1 through 20, with 1 being your least confident, and 20 being your most. The object of the game at all times is to get as many points as possible.
Saban Games
The Dark Lord oversees all football related activities, and demands that you sacrifice one game in each quadrant to him (four total, one from each: 1–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16–20). Your entry would look like this (with *** designating the Saban game for each quadrant):
20 — Wisconsin
19 — USC***
18 — New Mexico
17 — Navy
16 — Colorado
— — -
15 — Michigan
14 — Texas A&M
13 — Utah
12 — Washington State***
11 — Boise State
— — -
10 — Tennessee***
9 — NC State
8 — Northwestern
7 — Miami
6 — South Florida
— —
5 — Kentucky
4 — Auburn
3 — LSU
2 — Ohio State***
1 — Washington
The overall standings here are determined by all the non-Saban points you accumulate, and we pay out the leaders after all the bowls are complete. Saban points are used for the most important game of them all.
2. National Championship
There will be 5 bets for this game. Win the bet AND pick the champ (Dark Side/Light Side), and they get added to your total. Lose the bet or pick the wrong champ, and the points evaporate into thin air. You must wager at least one Saban point on each bet.
ie: you have 20 Saban points — here is one way you could play the title game:
Spread (8 points)
Over/Under (1 point)
Prop 1 (1 point)
Prop 2 (9 points)
Prop 3 (1 point)
Terms for siding with the Dark Side
1. If Alabama wins the championship, you get an equal return on your Saban points.
ie: you wager 5 Saban points on the over and win, along with a Bama win, you add 5 to your total.
2. Lose the bet, and half of it gets deducted from your total.
ie: you have 80 total points, and wager 9 Saban points on the under and lose. You’ve incurred Saban’s wrath, and he removes 4.5 points from your total, and you now have 76.5 total points.
If Alabama loses, any gains made with Saban points disappear, but 50% of your losing bets will still be deducted from your total, because Saban is a vengeful jerk who will burn a hole through your face if you miss a blocking assignment on 3rd and 2.
Terms for siding with the Light Side
1. Your correct picks double if Alabama loses in the National Championship.
ie: you wager 20 points on the over. You’re right and Alabama loses — you get 40 added to your total.
2. If Alabama loses to Washington — those with the Light Side will see their Saban points grow by 600% prior to the National Championship (Washington is a +625 moneyline underdog).
ie: you have 20 Saban points, and the Huskies take down the Tide, you now have 120 Saban points to wager in the title game.
Rules in the event of a Washington win
1. Those on the Dark Side can still gamble on the National Championship even though they have no Saban points, but they must put their own points at risk. Now if you lose a bet, you lose 100% of it from your total.
2. We all have to pick an outright winner between Washington and Ohio State/Clemson in the National Championship.
Same rules apply: you could be fervently anti-Saban & holding a ton of Saban points going into the night of 1/9, but if you pick Washington to win the title, and Clemson wins, those winning double point bets still go back into Saban’s pocket to build a dynasty that might not get USC’d in 5–10 years — such is the reach of Saban. Nothing in the championship portion matters unless you pick the champion.
Bottom line: pick your 20 favorite bowl winners, if you’re with or against Bama (with — you’re risking points and getting less payout, against — you’re winning more points and risking none), and 5 bets once we have the title game set. Nothing matters in part 2 unless you pick the champion.
Love it so much it hurts? Hit me up on Twitter and join in our debauchery.
On to the picks…
NFL
Carolina (-1) vs San Diego
Indianapolis (-6.5) vs Houston
Get used to seeing this one. Now that Luck is healthy, this is as big of a QB mismatch as you’ll find in the league. A half point doesn’t seem like a big deal, but here I think it’s insane to put this line under 7. Brock can make two throws: deep across the field, and deep down the sideline. Luck can literally make all of them.
Arizona (-2) @ Miami
San Francisco (-3) vs New York Jets
Kaepernick’s legs are a real weapon again and the Jets are flat out embarrassing. He’s the#1 rushing QB, per DVOA.
New Orleans (+2) @ Tampa Bay
All this division ever does is crap all over each other and pick a new winner at 10–6 each year (save for one glorious season).
Seattle (-3) @ Green Bay
NFL Super Bowl Contender VIP Section: Pats, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks. Sorry, Mr. Double Check.
Washington (-2) @ Philadelphia
Hot take alert: Kirk Cousins is pretty good. In a peak Jay Cutler sort of way, but still…he’s good.
New York Giants (+4) @ Dallas
If this were under 3, I’d probably pick the Cowboys. These SNF games are always batshit back and forth contests that end with someone screwing up the clock at the end and losing by a field goal.
Baltimore (+6.5) @ New England
This is more about the Pats being banged up than anything else. Gronk or no Gronk, they’re still the best team. Plus, their best offensive strength (deepest RB corps in the league) matches Baltimore’s #1 run defense.
Parlays/Teasers
With no college football to bet on, this is where that money went. Whhheeeee!
6 point teaser (-110 odds): Denver (+7) @ Tennessee/Indy (-0.5)
6 point teaser (-110 odds): New Orleans (+8)/Detroit (-1.5) vs Chicago
6 point teaser (-110 odds): Atlanta (0) @ LA/NY Giants (+10)
10 point teaser (-120 odds): Cleveland (+15) vs Cincinnati/NY Giants (+14)/Baltimore (+16.5)
4 team moneyline parlay (+404 odds): Indianapolis/Detroit/Denver/Atlanta
I took a big swing at this one. Fingers crossed. Enjoy the games today folks.
Last Week NCAA: 7–4
Season NCAA: 53–59–4
NCAA Parlays: 1–10
2 Week Ago NFL (skipped last week): 3–2
Season NFL: 34–26–1
NFL Teasers/Parlays: 8–6
