Week 2 College Football/Week 1 NFL Picks
Welp, I said I wanted to improve upon my middling record from the last few years, so of course I’ll continue the trend in week one. Time to switch up the strategy. I may be panicking too early, but this inevitably happens every year now, so better to try to change the tides of fortune sooner rather than later. Let’s get to it.
Iowa (-3.5) @ Iowa State
The strategy this week is to use exactly zero data. No stats. No returning players. Nothing. I’m purely going off of what I saw last weekend, which was a monster defense in Iowa City. The Cyclones offense will have their hands full today.
Louisville (-11) @ North Carolina
Logic here: UNC couldn’t get out to a good start at home against an underwhelming Cal team last week, which means that if they do the same against Lamar Jackson, the Cardinals will have 42 points by halftime.
UMass (+4) vs Old Dominion
There is absolutely no logic behind this one. I am being held hostage by this football program, and my Stockholm Syndrome is in full swing.
Indiana (-4) @ Virginia
The Hoosiers have a quarterback folks. I’m guessing they’ll be making a lot of appearances in this column this season.
TCU (-3) @ Arkansas
I’m buying the “TCU revival” story. Gary Patterson doesn’t have bad back to back seasons, and it’s always fun betting against Jerry Jones’ alma mater.
Nebraska (+11.5) @ Oregon
The Fallen Angels Bowl! Wanna feel old? Watch highlights of Marcus Mariota at Oregon. Wanna feel older? Watch highlights of Eric Crouch at Nebraska. Then point and laugh at how far these superpowers have fallen. When in doubt, take the points.
South Carolina (+3) @ Mizzou
The Tigers hung a bazillion on some directional school last week, while the Gamecocks fought a difficult battle against a top 25 team. I say South Carolina comes out more prepared for this one.
Auburn (+5) @ Clemson
I’m going to lose so much money on Auburn this year. I can feel it.
Georgia (+4.5) @ Notre Dame
This is the incompetent competence bowl. Both of these teams get way more publicity than their performance deserves. But I just moved to Georgia, dated a girl who went to UGA and I hate Notre Dame with the passion of a thousand suns, so that’s really all there is behind this bet.
Ohio State (-7) vs Oklahoma
Unless it’s Michigan or Alabama, I don’t care who the Buckeyes are hosting. If they’re laying a touchdown or less at home, I’m taking this juggernaut of an offense.
USC (-6) vs Stanford
Everyone’s down on the Trojans after last week’s scare, but I say that was the shock event they needed to get into shape. Expect an ass-kicking from Sam Darnold & company tonight.
Utah (-3) @ BYU
Utah and Auburn are going to lose me so much money this season. I know it.
Boise State (+10) @ Washington State
This is too many points for this defense. Luke Faulk can sling it, and the Cougars offense is really dangerous, but as we saw last year against Washington, Colorado, etc…it can be shut down by a good defense. Boise always has a good defense.
NFL PICKS TO BE POSTED HERE LATER
Sunday Morning Update
Well, my “no data” strategy from yesterday worked. Time to go in the completely opposite direction. For the past few years, I have been using a simplistic NFL system based largely off of the advanced metrics on Footballoutsiders.com. When you look at what wins you football games, I think five main vectors emerge:
Your quarterback
Your head coach
Your offensive line
Your pass rush + secondary
Playmakers (RB/WR/TE/DE/DT/LB/DB’s who can give you points you otherwise wouldn’t have)
So I simply started grading each team on a 1 to 5 scale, using a system with 0.5 increments. Does Footballoutsiders.com rank your run blocking 8th, and pass blocking 26th? Those add up to 32, so just divide that figure by two, and you get 16th — a middle of the pack score, and thus are assigned 2.5 in my system. For QB’s, playmakers and head coaches, that is my subjective grade (most coaches get a 2.5). It works out because it also follows the point spreads fairly evenly, so all you need to do is add 2.5–4 points depending on the home team, and by simply betting the team that has a higher score in my system, I have had a winning record in the NFL 3 years straight.
Here are my 1–32 power rankings pre-week 1 (so the Chiefs score has Eric Berry baked in to it, and it will not when I do my rankings next week).
New England — 21
Kansas City — 18
Pittsburgh — 18
Seattle — 18
Carolina — 17
Arizona — 16.5
Green Bay — 16.5
Denver — 16
Minnesota — 16
Washington — 16
Atlanta — 15.5
Dallas — 15.5
Oakland — 15.5
Tampa Bay — 15
New Orleans — 14.5
NY Giants — 14.5
Philadelphia — 14.5
Tennessee — 14.5
Baltimore — 14
LA Chargers — 14
Houston — 13.5
Cincinnati — 12.5
Chicago — 12
Miami — 12
Buffalo — 11.5
Detroit — 10
Jacksonville — 10
Cleveland — 9
LA Rams — 8.5
Indianapolis — 8 (Would be 11 with Luck)
San Francisco — 7
NY Jets — 5
Try this out for a week, I promise that there are some good results that come from this method. I’ve got the receipts to prove it in my old stories. On to this week’s NFL bets:
Chicago (+7) vs Atlanta
The Bears are my sneaky value team for now, as they actually had a really good pass rush and offensive line last year. I’m betting them at home until this doesn’t work.
Arizona (-2.5) @ Detroit
I was shocked to see my system dispense so much hate towards the Lions, considering how trendy a pick they seem to be every year.
Oakland (+3) @ Tennessee
I don’t blindly go with bigger numbers, as matchups matter. And Oakland’s biggest weakness (secondary) does not match up with the Titans best offensive strength (run game), while Tennessee’s weak link (secondary) matches up really well with Oakland’s strength (pass game).
Baltimore (+3) @ Cincinnatti
The Ravens are better than the Bengals. Period.
Cleveland (+10) vs Pittsburgh
I wouldn’t have bet this unless the number got to 10, which means I’ll surely be slamming my head on my couch when Antonio Brown scores his 3rd touchdown by halftime.
Seattle (+3) @ Green Bay
Similar to the Ravens bet, I just think the Seahawks are better.
Carolina (-5) @ San Francisco
Given that the Panthers are 10 points better than the 49ers in my system, even with 3 points for home field advantage (which is generous given the clusterfuck that is Levi’s stadium), if I don’t pick the Panthers, why the hell am I spending so much time devising this shit? #trusttheprocess
NY Giants (+4.5) @ Dallas
We’ve seen this game a bazillion times. It’s going to be decided by three points, and someone is going to royally fuck up the clock situation late in the game.
Teasers
Oakland (+13)/Chicago (+17)/NYG (+14.5)
Carolina (+1)/Buffalo (-1.5)
Experiment: I’m going to put the 49ers and Jets in a 6 point teaser every week this year, and I believe that will net me a profit. Enjoy the games, folks.
NCAA Last Week: 5–8
