Week 6 College/Week 5 NFL Bets
Well folks, we officially have a pattern. I was -3 in week 1, +5 in week 2, -4 in week 3, +1 in week 4, and -4 last week, which can only mean that I’m gonna kick ass in college football this week, right? Right?
In lieu of analysis this week (and it’s not like I do a ton this year, the “think fast and break things” strategy is still in full swing), I’ll just share a quick anecdote of my history with the teams I’m betting on. Let’s get to it.
Iowa (-17) vs Illinois
I was a pretty decent baseball player growing up, and one game, we had pro scouts from the A’s and Rangers to come check out the catcher on our team, and they subsequently passed my name and some tape on to their contacts in the much much much much much much much much much much lower realm of D-III baseball. Cornell College in Iowa wanted me to come play for them, and instead I tried to walk-on at UMass, where I learned that I would have to make the club team to even have a shot, and the club team was actually better than the varsity, because it was filled with good players who didn’t want to stick to a D-1 schedule. College sports are weird.
Clemson (-21.5) vs Wake Forest
Fun fact: Clemson was the first national champion I have picked correctly in more than five years.
Purdue (-4) vs Minnesota
My mom grew up in Indiana, so after Notre Dame, Purdue was the team most on her radar, and one of the earliest jerseys I owned was a Purdue jersey, but I told people it was a Colorado jersey because they have the same colors as Purdue. You can’t pull that shit in Colorado amongst the litany of diehard football fans, so needless to say, I did not earn any respect from my peers during this traumatic episode.
TCU (-13) vs West Virginia
The year that TCU played Boise in the Fiesta Bowl — no one has ever made me more money in a season than the Horned Frogs did that season, and they’re probably my biggest moneymaker all-time. I should get a Gary Patterson tattoo.
LSU (-1) @ Florida
Quick analysis: reports from Vegas are the sharps are on LSU today, so that’s the extent of this thinking. Also: TEEEEEBOOOOOWWWWWWWW!!!!
Florida State (+3) vs Miami
Arriving to UMass as a random kid from Colorado was initially a pretty painful experience. Everyone had their own friends/acquaintances already, and I wound up being a loner the first few weeks. That all turned the night that I stayed in to watch FSU-Miami while my suitemates went out and played pool (we lived in what they called a “suite,” with 4 rooms housing 7 people, a common area and a bathroom). They came back with a couple girls who wanted to hang out, one of whom would wind up becoming the only woman I’ve ever loved, as we dated all through college. So FSU-Miami games will always have a soft spot in my heart. That 2005 game was the dividing line between when UMass was a mistake and when it became the greatest thing that ever happened to me (although getting a full-time gig as a writer for a large magazine last year may Trump it — sigh, but there’s also that mother fucker becoming the focal point of my professional life).
Kansas State (+6.5) @ Texas
I drove to Kansas State one time to watch a Colorado game. Don’t ever do that. Please. I beg you. Manhattan is not what it sounds like.
Michigan (-11) vs Michigan State
First time I can ever remember going completely apeshit over sports sportsing.
Washington State (-3) @ Oregon
My first sincerely held draft belief was that Ryan Leaf would be a better pro QB than Peyton Manning. I’ll see myself out.
Nebraska (+11) vs Wisconsin
Inject this video directly into my veins please. One of the greatest games of all time, although some folks in Bugeaterville probably disagree (seriously, the Huskers used to be the Bugeaters, like, for real, this happened).
NFL Picks coming tomorrow
LA Chargers (+3) @ New York Giants
God, what a raging tire fire this game is. Take the points.
Buffalo (+3) @ Cincinnatti
This line confounds me. Vegas really thinks these two teams are equal? The Bengals don’t have an offensive line anymore, which has exposed Andy Dalton to be the guy we all knew he was, and Buffalo has been sneaky good for a while now.
Arizona (+7) @ Philadelphia
Gambling rule of mine: if you trust the QB, take a TD or more against any banged up secondary. This is backdoor cover territory.
Green Bay (+3) @ Dallas
R-E-L-A-X Packers fans. You’re good. Trust me.
Carolina (+2) @ Detroit
These aggressively mediocre playoff-caliber teams are like looking into a mirror. The Panthers front seven is better than the Lions, and both offensive lines are shit, so I give the edge to Carolina today.
Kansas City (-1.5) @ Houston
I know I say this every year but I’m 100% correct right now: Kansas City is the most complete team in football and it’s not close.
Minnesota (-3) @ Chicago
You really want to take just 3 points with a rookie QB making his debut against this defense?
6 Point Teaser
Cleveland (+8) vs NY Jets/Carolina (+8) @ Detroit
Both these contests have one-score-game written all over them.
Parlay
First one of the year. Just like teasers, I’ve gotta win em all to win, but I get a much better payout. All these are on the money line so I just need outright winners.
Buffalo/Green Bay/Minnesota
This pays out at +776. Enjoy the games folks.
Last Week NCAA: 3–7
Season NCAA: 29–34
Last Week NFL: 6–2
Season NFL: 19–20
