Week 6 Football Picks
No rant this week since I used up an entire season’s worth of rant’s last week on the MLB Awards race, so before we get rolling, I’ll just do some quick MLB postseason predictions.
Blue Jays over Rangers in 5
As I type this the Blue Jays are down 1–0 in the series, but up 4–3 in the top of the 6th in game 2. Given my affinity for Tulo, you had to of known this was the pick the whole way.
Astros over Royals in 5
Full disclosure: if Kansas City had won last night, I’d be picking them in 5.
Mets over Dodgers in 4
Cubs over Cardinals in 5
ALCS: Blue Jays over Astros in 5
NLCS: Cubs over Mets in 7
This is the year of the downtrodden franchise. Wacky stuff is on the way.
World Series: Blue Jays over Cubs in 6
But not that wacky, it is the Cubs after all.
Before we get to the picks, one quick note: I was told that Oregon’s line had moved all the way down to 6 against CU last week and I jumped online seeing if I could send more of my 401k that way, but alas, on the site I use it was still at 8. However, Notre Dame had jumped up to 3, so I bought it there, so there’ll be an extra win in the overall record down below not accounted for in last week’s column. Let’s get to the picks.
Texas (+17) vs Oklahoma
Ok, this is my Alamo with the Longhorns. I don’t think anyone can get a read on them, and even though they’ve done well against the spread this year, they’ve also been a laughingstock. If I lose this, I’m done betting on Texas the rest of the season. Oklahoma has the offense to blast this line out of the water, but at the same time, 3 scores in a rivalry game is just too much, and we’re not even certain if Oklahoma is good enough to justify their #10 ranking. They’ve beaten Akron, Tulsa, and West Virginia at home, and traveled to Tennessee to watch the Volunteers beat themselves.
Ole Miss (-45) vs New Mexico State
New Mexico State exists solely to provide self-confidence boosts to football teams around the country. The Rebels sure could use one after getting curb stomped last week in the Swamp, and even though I almost never lay this many points just based on principle, the combination of a shittacular team traveling east to play an early game against an explosive one is just too juicy to pass up.
Temple (-15) vs Tulane
Tulane scored a grand total of 7 points total in the first halves against Duke and Georgia Tech. They stomped an FCS team, Maine, and UCF, who might as well be an FCS team this season. What I’m getting at is that Tulane is extra stinky, and Temple has been awesome, going 4–0 against the spread.
Kansas (+45) vs Baylor
Since the start of last year, Baylor has averaged 57 points per game at home and 45 points per game on the road. That symmetry is just too tempting to pass up, even if the Jayhawks are a runaway train of sadness and misery.
Northwestern (+7) @ Michigan
This is the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Bowl, as both teams have already exceeded preseason prognostications, and given Ohio State’s struggles, the winner of this game will have massive expectations placed on their shoulders. This should be a low-scoring slobberknocker (over/under is set at 34), where touchdowns will be difficult to come by, so starting with one is a gigantic advantage.
Clemson (-7) vs Georgia Tech
I have no clue what happened to Paul Johnson’s squad, but I need to start making some money back since I said I’d reimburse anyone who lost betting them over 7.5 wins. Hopefully, Clemsonning is a thing of the past, but since I’m such a huge jinx, this bet probably brought it back into fruition.
Alabama (-16.5) vs Arkansas
Bringing a one dimensional offense into Tuscaloosa to face Nick Saban’s defense is basically like playing Russian Roulette with a bullet in every chamber.
West Virginia (-6.5) vs Oklahoma State
I don’t think anyone has a clue who is good in the Big 12 past TCU and Baylor, so I’m just gonna bet home teams under a touchdown from here on out. The Mountaineers have been kind to bettors so far this year, going 3–1 against the spread, and after getting gifted an extra 4 yards for a first down last week on a crucial TD drive against Kansas State, the Cowboys are due for some bad karma coming their way.
TCU (-10) @ Kansas State
Even though the Wildcats are always dangerous at home, this is not a good matchup for their plodding offense. TCU ranks 3rd in the country with 107 plays of 10 yards or more, while KState ranks a dismal 119th, tied with Navy for 48 plays of 10+ yards. If the Horned Frogs get rolling, there’s no way the Wildcats can keep up with them without the aid of multiple turnovers.
Miami (+9) @ Florida State
Rivaly game. Even-ish teams. More than a TD. Rinse. Repeat.
California (+7.5) @ Utah
OK, so this might be the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Bowl, as the Utah-Michigan game in week one seems to be the starting point in trying to unravel who the hell is actually good this season. Cal might have the #1 pick behind center, and if a quarterback as prolific as Jared Goff is getting more than a touchdown, I’m contractually obligated to bet them, no matter how much I like the other team (and I really really really like Utah). Plus, there’s literally nothing on the stat page to separate these two teams, save for big plays. Cal is 11th in the country in plays of 10+ yards, Utah is 114th.
NFL
St. Louis (+9) @ Green Bay
The Rams are the NFL’s resident stale fart; they just keep hanging around. No matter who is behind center, their defense can keep anyone in the game, and with Todd Gurley looking like a grand slam draft pick, the Rams have everything they need to play the slow, methodical pace that Jeff Fisher loves.
Jacksonville (+3) @ Tampa Bay
I repeat, Jacksonville might not be terrible this year. You know who is terrible this season? JameINTs WINTston
Arizona (-3) @ Detroit
The stingy Lions defense makes me a little nervous about this bet, but the Cardinals still boast one of the best all around teams in the league, and if they’re firing on all cylinders, Detroit has no shot.
New England* (-10) @ Dallas
Speaking of no shot, Bill Belichick had two weeks to prepare for Brandon Weeden. Need I say more?
Pittsburgh (+3) @ San Diego
I know that we’re not supposed to overreact to what happens in Septbember, but man, the Chargers just don’t look like they’re very good this year. I’m really starting to think that Oakland is the 2nd best team in the AFC West.
Enjoy your weekend folks.
Last Week NCAA: 4–6
Season NCAA: 22–26–3
Last Week NFL: 2–1
Season NFL: 15–10
Total: 37–36–3
