Week 7 College/Week 6 NFL Bets
I am a jinx. I swear. I have super powers which enable me to turn a game against the words that come out of my head. It usually manifests when I talk about a team I care about/have bet on.
Thanks to Pedro Martinez, I was a Red Sox fan long before my decade in Massachusetts. They lost to the Astros in the ALDS this week, but not without a valiant fight in the final game. Here’s an example of my capabilities.
The Red Sox briefly took the lead off one of the best pitchers in the 2nd half of this season. In between me saying “Verlander is terrifying” and my buddy saying “you are the best,” the Red Sox hit a go ahead two run home run (that my stream was slightly behind on). I bring my jinxing ability up because I wrote this last week:
Well folks, we officially have a pattern. I was -3 in week 1, +5 in week 2, -4 in week 3, +1 in week 4, and -4 last week, which can only mean that I’m gonna kick ass in college football this week, right? Right?
Because the sports gods have a great sense of humor, I went 4–4–1 last week. My push? LSU (-1). You can’t make this shit up. Let’s get to the picks.
West Virginia (-4) vs Texas Tech
College football already had a playoff: the regular season. Every game between 1–1 teams is something of an elimination game, as you go two games up on the other team thanks to the tiebreaker. Thanks to the Oklahomas losses, the race for the Big 12 is wide open. Someone’s gonna step up, I’m betting on West Virginia.
North Carolina State (-11) @ Pittsburgh
Thanks to Clemson’s loss last night, the Wolfpack are in the drivers seat in the ACC, and as always, Pitt is bad.
Kansas State (+7) vs TCU
Zig when people are zagging. That’s the enduring truth of sports betting. I don’t know how good KState is, but through a lifetime of watching the Big 12, I do know how tough it is to win in Manhattan.
Texas (+9) vs Oklahoma
Rivalry game. Take the points.
LSU (+7.5) vs Auburn
This is the SEC version of my KState bet.
Miami (-6) vs Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has beaten maybe the two worst teams in the ACC, an FBS school and they lost to Tennessee (who should have lost at home to fucking UMass — that’s the greatest win in my alma mater’s D-1 program history). Not to sound like Bill Simmons here, but I really think we’re gonna look back at this line and laugh.
Florida (-2.5) vs Texas A&M
There’s a lot of competition for the nightmare SEC season this year, but I’m holding firm to my prediction that it will be the Aggies who completely collapse.
Utah (+13) @ USC
One thing I’ve noticed in my betting habits over the years is I LOVE me some weird Mountain Time Zone teams. Utah. Wyoming. Boise. Colorado State. The nickname all of us from that region have given it is the Forgotten Timezone, because national media really does seem to skip over it. I think this manifests itself in Vegas, where only so much attention can be paid to NCAA lines during NFL season, and I think these teams from states who aren’t a big part of the national conversation repeatedly get an extra point or two more than they should. I don’t know if that’s the case here, but Utah vs Los Angeles is basically a direct test of that theory.
Boise State (+6) @ San Diego State
Remember what I said about playoff games earlier? These are the two best teams in the Mountain West.
Oregon (+10) @ Stanford
I’m buying a small amount of stock in a Duck resurgence. As this college basketball scandal engulfing Rick Pitino and Adidas (for now) has taught us, as long as those Nike dollars are flowing, Oregon will stay relevant.
NFL picks coming tomorrow
Hell yeah, now I’m one solid week away from climbing above .500 in my NCAA bets. Speaking of being above .500 on my bets, here are my NFL picks.
San Francisco (+11) @ Washington
I know, west coast team playing early on the east. Yadda yadda yadda. This mattered more before charter flights and sleep science. I just think it’s too many points against a front seven that has been pretty solid this year.
Baltimore (-5) @ Chicago
This is a tough week, so this is the only game I feel any amount of confidence in. Baltimore’s defense is back.
Los Angeles Rams (+1) @ Jacksonville
Prediction: Blake Bortles will spend more time today staring at Aaron Donald than he will his top receiver.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) @ Oakland
Phillip Rivers vs EJ Manuel. That’s all I’m gonna say.
Kansas City (-3) vs Pittsburgh
Gambling rule: never bet on a quarterback publicly wondering if he’s washed up playing against a defense full of banshees.
New York Jets (+10) vs New England
I started the year saying I would throw whomever was playing the Jets into a teaser, and now I’m betting on them at home against Brady. What a weird season this has turned out to be.
Denver (-12.5) vs New York Giants
I couldn’t believe how big this line was when it came out, now I can’t believe that it’s not 2 touchdowns. Who the hell is left on the Giants?
6 point teaser
Baltimore (+1)/LA Rams (+7)
Meaning I added 6 points to each line. I have to win both to win money, and it pays out at even odds.
Parlay
Cleveland (+310) @ Houston/LA Chargers (+130)
Those are moneylines (so if you bet $100 on Cleveland, you win $310 if they win outright). Parlayed together, this pays +850. I can’t win without both these teams winning.
Parlay
Los Angeles Rams (-105)/Kansas City (-180)
Another moneyline parlay, but this time on favorites (meaning you’d need to bet $180 to win $100 on Kansas City). Parlayed together, this pays +205. Enjoy the games everyone, and go Broncos.
Last Week NCAA: 4–4–1
Season NCAA: 33–38–1
Last Week NFL: 6–2
Season NFL: 25–22
