Week 8 Football Picks
Miami (+7.5) vs Clemson
Clemson’s lone road game this year was a Thursday night escape at Louisville a month ago. Given that road games at tough conference opponents are one of the best ways to evaluate a team, I’m deciding to reserve judgement on the Tigers until two weeks from now after they’ve been tested in the Orange Bowl and at North Carolina State, the ACC’s resident good bad team.
Arkansas (-6) vs Auburn
Against power 5 conference opponents, Auburn is allowing 5.62 yards per carry, placing them 101st in the country. Arkansas is averaging 4.87 yards per carry against power 5 opponents, ranking 25th in the nation. And given how miserable Auburn has been this year and how one dimensional the Razorbacks’ offense is, that’s really all you need to look at in this matchup.
Baylor (-37) vs Iowa State
They can’t make this line high enough. The Cyclones have played 2 offenses as explosive as Baylor’s, and they were absolutely eviscerated through the air by TCU (13.1 yards per attempt) and Texas Tech (9 yards per attempt) while conceding a combined 1,397 yards to both teams. Baylor is on a war path to the playoff and should have this line covered by halftime.
Toledo (-14) @ UMass
I was one of probably 5 people outside of McGuirk Stadium to watch last week’s catastrophe against Kent State from start to finish. Scoring 10 points against what should be one of the worst teams in the MAC is not a good way to prep for the best team in the MAC and one of the best offenses in the country. Plus, the most talented QB in UMass history, Blake Frohnhapel, is clearly hurt. We might see some action from coach Whipple’s son on Saturday. This line could be doubled and I’d still be fading my alma mater.
Texas Tech (+14) @ Oklahoma
The Red Raiders have lost to Baylor and TCU, and blown the doors off of everyone else (save for an uninspiring 30–20 win last week against the Kansas LOLhawks). Last year, Oklahoma had to mount a 21 point 4th quarter to come back and beat Texas Tech, and this game should be similarly close as Kliff Kingsbury’s squad is light years ahead of where they were last season (especially on defense). Although, Oklahoma is the biggest jekyl and hyde team in the country, so anything between a 63–0 win and a 63–0 loss seems in play for the Sooners here.
Penn State (-6) @ Maryland (in Baltimore)
Maryland’s offense has completely disappeared for long stretches this season, as evidenced by their combined 6 points in back to back weeks against West Virginia and Michigan. The Nittany Lions offense isn’t explosive, but they do have a 1st round pick at quarterback, which should be good enough to easily waltz past one of the dregs of the B1G.
Ole Miss (-5) vs Texas A&M
Larry Tunsil, the Rebels’ stud left tackle, returns from a suspension just in time as he faces arguably the best pass rusher in the SEC in Myles Garrett. Ole Miss might be the new Clemson: an insanely talented team that has the ability to beat anyone while also being able to lose to 75% of the country on any given day. The Rebels should be royally pissed off after their title run-ending loss at Memphis last week, and after having a team meeting to hash everything out, I expect Ole Miss to play up to their potential against a streaky A&M squad.
Utah (+3) @ USC
I get that Utah is not as good as their #3 ranking suggests, but this line is still silly. USC has beaten bad teams and lost to good teams, and even though Utah may not be a juggernaut, they’re still better than every team USC has played. This should be Utah -3. Grab the free points while you still can.
Kentucky (+11.5) @ Mississippi State
Call this one a hunch. The Bulldogs have been wildly inconsistent while Kentucky has one of the better defenses in the SEC, ranking 19th in scoring defense against power 5 conference teams, allowing 19.8 points per game.
NFL
Pittsburgh (-2) @ Kansas City
Backing Landry Jones on the road in Arrowhead is probably a recipe for disaster, but this Chiefs team is such a mess that I don’t think the hostile crowd will matter much. Alex Smith refuses to throw a ball further than his 4 year old can, and I’m convinced that KC’s epic collapse in week 2 against the Broncos was one of those losses that just KO’s a team for the entire season. Between Martavis Bryant and Antonio Brown, it may not matter who is quarterback so long as the Steelers offensive line gives him enough time to throw it up.
NY Jets (+8) @ New England*
My two favorite bets are on Ryan Fitzpatrick and Landry Jones…and I wonder how I went 2–5 last week. Regardless, the Jets are built to beat the Pats*. New England* cannot stop the run, and Chris Ivory might be a better version of Marshawn Lynch than Marshawn Lynch is right now; while Belichick’s offensive line has taken such a beating, you can’t help but assume that the Jets psychotic “all blitzes all the time” defense will get consistent pressure on the golden boy. With Revis on Edelman, this seems like one of those games where the Pats* lack of playmakers on offense is really going to expose them.
Atlanta (-6) @ Tennessee
Hey look! I finally wagered on a good quarterback! Meanwhile, Zach Mettenberger is not a good quarterback. He had Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Jeremy Hill to work with in college and the furthest he took that team was to the freaking Outback Bowl. You can make a case that his weapons in Tennessee are worse than what he had at LSU.
Oakland (+4) @ San Diego
I think they should make these teams raise the stakes: winner moves to LA, loser has to inherit the other’s terrible stadium. These squads are basically equal in my eyes, so I’m just grabbing the points.
Indianapolis (-4) vs New Orleans
This game should have higher stakes too: if Indy wins, they get to swap Chuck “we practiced this trick play all week even though we lined up in a clear illegal formation and I never told the backup snapper what he should do, yet I would call that godforsaken play again in a heartbeat” Pagano for Sean Peyton. If New Orleans wins, they get to swap Brees for Luck.
Side note: It really demonstrates how hopeless the Colts coaching staff is against the Patriots* that they have to pray that a weird formation will cause the best coached team of this century to suddenly lose it and jump offsides or run off the field for no reason. If he hadn’t gotten cancer, the internet would be overflowing with Chuck Pagano criticism. He’s just not that good of a coach (to be fair, Pagano’s GM has put this team together like he’s trying to get fired; letting the best young QB in the league get pummeled behind the same terrible offensive line for three years running is a football felony).
Arizona (-8) vs Baltimore
Baltimore has such a dearth of playmakers at CB and WR that they could probably play their WR’s at CB and vice versa for an entire game and no one would notice. Patrick Peterson and Bruce Arians’ bombs away offense is about the worst matchup you can create for the NFL’s biggest disappointment.
Enjoy the weekend folks.
Last Week NCAA: 7–2–1
Season NCAA: 35–33–4
Last Week NFL: 2–5
Season NFL: 20–17
Total: 55–50–4
