Week 9 Football Picks
Since we’re about halfway through the NFL and NCAA seasons, I think it’s high time to make some mid-season playoff predictions.
NFL
AFC: 1. New England* 2. Cincinnati 3. Denver 4. Indy (8–8 or worse) 5. Pittsburgh 6. Oakland
NFC: 1. Arizona 2. Green Bay 3. Carolina 4. Dallas 5. Atlanta 6. Seattle
NCAA Playoff: 1. Ohio State 2. Clemson 3. TCU 4. Stanford
I really really really really really really really really wanted to pick Memphis for the last NCAA spot, but I can’t see how the powers that be vote them in ahead of the bajillion 1 and 2 loss power 5 conference teams. This season is as wide open as any I can remember.
On to the picks…
Purdue (+7.5) vs Nebraska
The Boilermakers have quietly had one of the more difficult schedules this year, so while all of the numbers show that the Cornhuskers are pretty far ahead of Purdue, they don’t tell the whole story. Purdue’s 3 road games at Marshall, Michigan State, and Wisconsin versus Nebraska’s road trips to Minnesota, Illinois, and the artists formerly known as the U are instructive of this divide. Call this one an informed hunch.
Ole Miss (-7) @ Auburn
If Ole Miss is on their game, it would take Auburn 8 quarters to score the same amount of points the Rebels can score in 2.
Texas A&M (-16.5) vs South Carolina
Speaking of teams that can’t score, the Gamecocks and Mizzou had one of the lowest over/under totals I’ve ever seen last week and came nowhere close to banging the over. Video game football FTW.
California (+6) vs USC
One of my gambling rules is if it looks like it’s going to be a shootout, take the home team with the points, especially if the home team has a 1st round pick behind center.
Colorado (+23) @ UCLA
This might be the first time I’ve ever bet one of my favorite teams based on a hunch that had nothing to do with my rampant homerism. Just based off the eye test, criminally underrated QB Sefo Liufau and the Buffs seem like they can reasonably hang with Chosen Rosen and the west coast B’s.
San Diego State (-3) @ Colorado State
Stud playmaker Rishard Higgins is banged up, and if he isn’t at 100%, it’s hard for the Rams to hang with a quality team like the Aztecs who are getting better every week. This is my favorite bet.
Florida (-2.5) vs Georgia
The calendar is turning to November, which means that the Bulldogs are ready to begin their descent into maddening mediocrity.
Kansas (+40.5) vs Oklahoma
The Sooners are so hit or miss that it’s hard to pass up this many points, even if the Jayhawks are the football embodiment of a tire fire swept up in a hurricane.
UNLV (+21) vs Boise State
This is simply a contrarian pick, as more than 4 out of every 5 bets this weekend are on Boise.
Michigan (-13.5) vs Minnesota
The last time we saw the Wolverines, they were choking away their playoff spot on one of the most unbelievable endings football has ever seen. I’m guessing they’re going to be more than a little pissed off. Bold prediction: the Gophers don’t crack double digits in this game.
Temple (+11) vs Notre Dame
I’ve been on the Owls more than any other team this year. Why would I stop betting them now?
Stanford (-10) @ Washington State
Even though Wazzu seems to be turning it around, Stanford and mini-McCaffery are just too good to pass up anything less than 14 points here.
NFL
Chicago (+1) vs Minnesota
In everyone’s early season rush to declare the Bears as this year’s dumpster fire, people have forgotten that the Vikings are 4–2 against teams that are a combined 14–27, which looks a lot worse once you remove the 6–0 Broncos from that figure.
St. Louis (-8.5) vs San Francisco
Hey 28th ranked defense per DVOA, meet the best running back in the NFL not named Le’Veon Bell.
Baltimore (-3) vs San Diego
Here’s what the Chargers injury report looks like on defense:
Everyone who is good — Doubtful
Everyone who is bad — Probable
The Ravens have lost too many close games to keep this up, look for them to waltz past the AFC West’s worst team.
Seattle (-6) @ Dallas
Really Vegas? Have you watched the abomination the Cowboys are trotting out at quarterback right now? If you watch one of the Josh McCowns or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s of the world right after watching Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden, the former look like Dan Marino and John Elway.
Last Week NCAA: 3–6
Season NCAA: 38–39–4
Last Week NFL: 2–3–1
Season NFL: 22–20–1
Total: 60–59–5
